By Moe Bedard
The phrase “Fed Speak” originated when Alan Greenspan sat as chairman of the Federal Reserve. The phrase refers to his ambiguous method of speaking to the public, rarely saying anything of concrete substance in an effort to decrease the impact of his statements on the financial markets. Translating Greenspan’s statements used to be considered an art and it appears to me that the current Fed Chair, Ben Bernanke is following in Greenspan’s footsteps of saying a lot while really saying very little. The worst problem associated with Fed Speak is that major media outlets report on the Fed Chair’s statements very differently.
Yahoo! News reported gleefully today that the Fed is predicting the economy to start growing again by the end of 2009, signaling the end of the recession. Bloomberg, however, maintains a far darker perception of the Fed Chair’s remarks made a few days ago indicating the financial markets are poised for another potentially major financial relapse. The funny thing about these two opposing views from major news carriers is that they are based on the same public speech. Here’s a few examples:
From Yahoo! News:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress Tuesday that the economy should pull out of a recession and start growing again later this year.
From Bloomberg:
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke warned that another shock to the financial system would undercut the central bank’s forecast that the U.S. recession will give way this year to a slow recovery.
So what are we to believe about the Fed? Are the statements coming from the Fed important as it pertains to the lending and loan modification industry? Here’s my perspective: We as citizens, even our representatives, have little control over the Federal Reserve, however their statements can have a major impact on our economy. As it pertains to the lending and loan modification industries, I think Fed statements are less important then the ACTIONS of the Fed. We can spend hours reading conflicting news reports about Fed statements and the meaning of Fed policy. We should really be asking ourselves whether the actions of the Fed are either warranted or unwarranted and analyze for ourselves whether our representatives are pursuing the interests of Main Street in their relations with the Federal Reserve. All discussions of Fed Speak aside, it seems to me our representatives are in the pocket of the Fed more than they are able to maintain any meaningful control over it.
{ 3 comments… read them below or add one }
Moe,
More than anything right now we need optimism. I think that the COO of Zillow said it best what he stated that, while recent Government initiatives such as Making Home Affordable are helping homeowners avoid foreclosure, we are not truly going to pull out of the slump without two very important things happening: first, unemployment has to go down; the unemployed do not buy homes, they do not have money to spend as consumers, and unfortunately (and in many cases through no fault of their own) drain resources that could be allocated elsewhere. The second factor is the results of the stimulus package, and hopefully increased consumer confidence. Prospective homeowners are fearful that if they purchase a home, the home will immediately or almost immediately lose value due to the nature of the market. Additionally, many current homeowners would have to sell their current home to purchase a new one, and now certainly is not the time to sell.
Once there is more confidence in America in the housing market and the economy in general, we should pull ourselves out of the recession. It would be nice if all of the news publications were equally optimistic.
Justin,
It is hard to be optimistic about real estate and mortgages when the sky IS falling and IT IS NOT a good time to buy. These people who buy now, will just be foreclosures later. I am finding that the weight of being underwater by thousands is a driving factor in these foreclosures. People are choosing to bail the sinking ships as opposed to being optomitic and dying with a smile on their face as theim lives go under water.
Moe,
You took the words right out of my mouth. This is the one thing that I don’t think that lenders or Congress or even our President has truly grasped; it is very, very hard for anyone to come to terms with being completely and seemingly incorrigibly upside down on their mortgage.
Most people can modify their mortgages and save their homes; you seem even more knowledgeable than I regarding loan mods, and I’m sure that you’re well aware of this. When lenders and investors do NPV tests (or their equivalent) to determine whether it is in their best interest to modify, as long as home values continue to decline, the cost of modification is becoming lower and lower than the cost of foreclosure.
The problem as I see it, and please correct me if I am wrong, is the fact that 1)homeowners are underinformed regarding lender and investor guidelines that will get them a modification, and 2)probably most importantly, duration; 2 months just to get a negotiator assigned for most of the major players. We are a consumerist society with a horrific case of ADD. It is very difficult for homeowners facing foreclosure and under the huge financial stress of possibly losing their home to wait for 2 months, simply to speak with a decision maker.
So of course they are bailing. Moe, this industry is a mess, theres a lot of scum that take advantage of scared homeowners, promise them a panacea through loan mod, take money and run. I want nothing more than for the housing crisis and recession to be over and to get back into Commercial Lending.
I’m pretty impressed at how well connected you are the simply crazy web-presence that you’ve developed. I kind of fell into modifications by default when my brother was facing foreclosure and I helped save his home a little over 9 months ago. I understand you’re probably crazy busy, but I’d like to touch base sometime and get your advice on a number of things from modification to SEO to pending legislation. My direct line is (301) 704-2977. Hope to hear from you.