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According to analysts at Deutsche Bank AG, as property value declines and scarce credit continue to drive commercial property developers and investors into default, total lifetime losses on banks’ $1 trillion “core” commercial-mortgage holdings, or those backed by income-producing properties, would reach between 11.6% and 15.3%, or $115 billion and $150 billion. Those expected losses would be at least as large as those on loans originated and bundled into commercial-mortgage-backed securities, or CMBS, from 2005 and 2008, a period of cheap and reckless credit, the analysts estimate.
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